Sense & Guts - Technical Analysis Headline Animator

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is the forecasting of possible future price movements based on the past or historical records. Like other forecasting methods, it is using the past to determine the possible future, although the result may not be 100% accurate but it helps investors to anticipate what is the possible price movements ahead.

Technical Analysis is used by many investors and fund managers. It helps them to determine the trend of the market and individual stock, as well as the timing for entry and exit in their investment.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

DJI - Where is uncle Jones heading to?

DJI has closed at 8479 on 25 Nov 2008.

It is currently supported at 8175 followed by 7552 (recent low). Current resistance is at 8567, followed by 8800. If it manage to break its top trend line at around 8800, next resistance will be at 9253, followed by 9625. Very strong resistance at 10,000.

MACD is currently showing a bullish divergence, it need to clear the resistance at 8800 first to show some short term bullishness. But take note that market is still fundamentally weak, any rebounce likely to be short term.

STI - Where are we heading to?

STI has closed at 1653 on 25 Nov 08.

Currently it is supported at 1600, falling below it may see it moving towards 1500, next support will be at 1473 (recent low).

Its current resistance is at 1682 (Top Trend line). If it manage to break out of the resistance, we will see it moving towards next resistance at around 1750. Subsequent resistance is at around 1880 followed by 1980 which will be another strong resistance.

Although MACD is showing possible crossover and a bullish divergence. It need to clear the resistance at 1682 first.

As market is still fundamentally weak, any rebounce is likely to be short term. Long term indicator is still showing sign of weakness.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Hang Seng Index Showing Sign of Reversal?

After falling below the support at bottom trend line on 15 Aug 08, HSI has made a small rebounce and closed at 21,056 on yesterday.

Currently there is a strong resistance at 21,337 (20d EMA) and 21,460 (the previous bottom trend line). Although MACD is showing potential positive divergence but we need to know not all divergence will succeed. In order for the divergence to be a positive one, it need to clear the resistance at 20d EMA and 50d EMA (which coincide with the top trend line) as well.

If the resistance at 21,460 cannot be cleared, next support will be at 20,000.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Straits Times Index Breaking its Support at 2746.

STI has closed at 2728 breaking its support at 2746.

Next support level will be at 2665 follow by 2500 which is one of the main support. All indicators are still in bearish region, from daily chart to monthly chart.

Dow Jones Breaking Short Term Bottom Trend Line

DJI closed at 11348, breaking the short term bottom trend line.

It has touches its support at 11260 before closing at 11348. If this support fail, next major support will be at around 11000 follow by 10732.

The overall long term bottom trend line is currently at 10000.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Straits Times Index to fall from bottom trend line?

STI closed at 2816 on yesterday. With DJI falling more than 1%, STI is likely to follow. There a very good chance of it falling below its support (current bottom trend line) at around 2810. Next support will be at 2800 follow by 2746.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Straits Times Index at its Bottom Trendline

STI closed on the bottom trendline at 2807. Current resistance at around 2900, 2950 follow by 3000. Next support will be at around 2750.

With DJI moving up 302.98 points, Singapore market will likely to open with a gap up on Monday.

Dow Jones Index continues with its short term uptrend


DJI moved up 302.89, breaking its resistance at 50dEMA and closed at 11,734.3. It is currently continuing its short term uptrend with the next resistance at 11820. Once 11820 is cleared, next resistance will be around 12000 follow by 12340.
Current support is at around 11,400 which is the bottom trendline.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Dow Jones Index Breaking Short Term Top Trend Line


Dow Jones Index has continued with its short term uptrend and closed at 11615.
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It has found its support again at its short term bottom trend line and continue to move up breaking the short term top trend line at around 11555. Next resistance will be at 11695 follow by 11820. Breaking 11820 will see a confirmation on reversal base on chart pattern.
With MACD crossing the centerline, it is an indication of change of trend....a short term up trend. Since it has just crossed over, it is better to fall back to chart pattern for confirmation. But generally, chart looks good for short term.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Dow Jones Index in Short Term Uptrend

DJI has formed a higher low which means that a short term uptrend is established. Next resistance will be at around 11820. If it manage to clear this resistance, next resistance will be at 12000, 12400 and the major resistance is currently at around 12700, which is its long term top trendline.

Looking at a bigger picture, DJI is still in a long term downtrend. It need to break the long term top trendline in order to reverse the long term trend.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Dow Jones Index seeing some Resistance


Dow Jones index closed at 11632 after hitting high of 11820. With the candle showing a doji, looks like some bears start to come out again and some bulls are taking their profit as well. We can see from the daily chart, currently there is a resistance at 11829 (50d EMA) which coincide with the 200w EMA in weekly chart.
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For indicators, MACD shows sign of of crossing the centerline soon, but base on my another fast leading indicators, it is actually at oversold region and it is showing sign of moving down. With the resistance at 11829, DJI is likely to come down for the next few days. For a continue short term uptrend, we need to have a higher low formed.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

STI has Fallen Below its Support?

STI has fell below its support at 2850 and closed at 2830. It has break below both bottom uptrend line shown in the chart. Base on current market sentiment, looks like there may have more down side.

Also, with the starts of the result announcement period, unless you are expecting some good results, if not, it will be good to stay clear of the path.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Hansg Seng Index Breaking Down?

HSI closed at 21174, falling below its neckline of the head and shoulders at around 21220.
Things really doesn't look good.

Major Supports for DJI


Current support for DJI is at around 11000. If this support failed, base on the weekly chart, next support will be at around 10000 which is the bottom trend line, this will provide an even stronger support level.
Can DJI make a reversal around 10000? That is a critical support level.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Dow Jones Index Found the Support?

After days of ups and downs, DJI has finally touches it support (Bottom trend line) at around 11000, which can be a strong support. With MACD crossing over the signal line, it posts a good chance for a short term rebounce. But the market is still in a downtrend in long term.
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In order to have a confirmation on short term reversal, DJI need to break it current resistance (top trend line) at around 11280~11290.
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Dow Jones Index

DJI has closed at 12,269 last night. It had touches its top downtrend line at around 12360 before moving down again. Breaking it will see it moving up again with the next resistance at around 12750 (200d EMA). But if it fail to break the top downtrend line, we may see it continue to move down with the support at 12040, 11650 follow by 11500.

Base on the indicators, MACD is still in bearish region, but looks like it may crossover the signal line soon. As for stochastic, it has just came out of the oversold region and RSI still remain weak.